Scratch the surface of the year's biggest stories — the Iran war and AI — and both are bound up in the costs of energy.
Why it matters: Prices for gasoline, diesel and power are playing a prominent role in some of the tightest races for control of Congress.
- The war has kept gasoline prices way above $4 per gallon for months, and helped push diesel to record highs.
- Fairly or unfairly, data centers are getting blamed for rising electricity prices.
- It's all unfolding as affordability more broadly tops the agenda in races nationwide.
Here's a look at how energy politics are playing out in five critical contests...
Senate
Michigan. Power prices climbed faster than the national average over the past year in the Wolverine state, and data centers surfaced early in the Democratic primary and stayed prominent in the tight general election race.
- Former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers' campaign shows how Republican hopefuls are willing to split with President Trump on energy and AI — or at least get ahead of him.
- Rogers called for a one-year moratorium on data centers in August. And he called for a temporary ban on diesel exports in September, an idea Trump then flirted with but backed off.
- On the Democratic side, if Abdul El-Sayed's January "terms of engagement" for data centers looks familiar, it's because it reflects an increasingly common Democratic view around community buy-in and clean energy.
Ohio. AI's voracious appetite for electricity is fueling the clash between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and Democrat Sherrod Brown.
- Husted has made the case that data centers — not households — should pay for the new power plants and grid infrastructure needed to serve them. A bill he sponsored aimed at doing that fell short in the Senate after passing the House overwhelmingly.
- Brown is attacking Husted for previously championing data centers and tax incentives to attract them to Ohio.
- The fight encapsulates a broader question surrounding the AI boom: Who should pay for the massive buildout needed to power it?
Alaska. The Iran war is turning energy prices into a potent issue in the race between Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola.
- In rural communities, fuel already costs far more than in the Lower 48, with gasoline reaching $10 a gallon in some places. Peltola is tying rising fuel costs directly to Sullivan's support for the war, arguing higher diesel prices are hammering fishermen and families.
- Sullivan has called for temporarily halting U.S. diesel exports and argues Alaska should produce more of its own energy.
- Looming over it all is Trump's push for a massive Alaska project to export liquefied natural gas.
House
Colorado 8th. This is a contest where energy could be the tipping point. Both general elections in the district's young history have been decided by less than 1%, and energy is prominent this time around.
- One thing to watch is how much political cover a recent data center vote gives incumbent Republican Gabe Evans.
- Evans' bipartisan Ratepayer Protection Act passed the House 417-3 last month. It urges states — but doesn't force them — to set rules ensuring data center developers cover generation and grid upgrade costs
- Don't sleep on gasoline either. New Democratic ads supporting challenger Manny Rutinel tie Evans to Trump's war with Iran and higher gasoline prices.
Pennsylvania 8th. Data centers have become a central issue in the House race between Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan and Democratic Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti.
- Northeastern Pennsylvania is fielding proposals for the energy-hungry facilities. Cognetti is campaigning explicitly against projects that raise electric bills, threaten water supplies or receive tax breaks.
- Bresnahan, who has previously supported data center development, has introduced legislation aimed at protecting local governments that reject projects from corporate lawsuits.
- The fight captures the emerging politics around AI infrastructure: Communities may want the investment and jobs, but they also want control over the costs.
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