Top executives at Anthropic, OpenAI and other AI companies are privately gaming out scenarios for a public and political revolt after a catastrophic AI event.
Why it matters: These officials anticipate a large-scale event, most likely a cyberattack, that shuts down access to financial services, internet connectivity, or even power and water.
- The first example of significant real-world harm caused by unsafe AI would turn an already wary public further against the technology and its leaders, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as well as President Trump for reluctance to regulate it.
The risk: While scenario planning is common within many companies and national security settings — the Pentagon has been running war games for decades — the difference is that many top AI researchers and executives believe a major incident is inevitable.
- "OpenAI conducts preparedness exercises where teams discuss and work through a range of potential scenarios," a company spokesperson said. "These scenarios are not treated as inevitable, but are meant to help us prepare for a variety of circumstances."
- Anthropic declined to comment.
Zoom in: The blame game will start whether a rogue-agent swarm breaks containment from an internal testing environment or a bad actor finds unexpected ways to use available models.
- A recent campaign targeting South Korean financial organizations — including reported breaches at two banks — shows the damage one person can do.
- A hacker from China allegedly used AI tools from China-developed models, including DeepSeek, to steal data from tens of thousands of bank customers. The attacker used Claude Code to ask for help finding places to sell the stolen data, according to cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike.
Top AI planners assume Democrats, ascendant after the midterms, will move fast to shut down AI but will face significant challenges.
- An aging Congress, out of touch with the AI revolution, could find itself out of its depth.
- The global economy is now heavily intertwined with an AI infrastructure buildout. Slowing it down could hit an already fragile economy hard.
- Too many open-weight models exist that can already be freely downloaded and used to cause harm, a problem most cybersecurity pros see as solvable only by using AI to fight rogue AI.
Between the lines: The planning involves red-teaming for worst-case scenarios. It focuses mainly on racing to educate members of Congress.
- Company executives know regulation has no chance of passing right now, but still want to shape the legislation and policies U.S. leaders will turn to after a first catastrophic event.
What we're watching: Many AI industry insiders told Axios they believe a major event will occur in the next six to 12 months.
- Even with Democrats in control of the House and Senate, the companies see fractured politics as the norm, including within the Democratic Party.
- Some of the most heavy-handed Democratic proposals include banning superintelligence or pausing advanced AI development.
- Others have bipartisan support and even some industry buy-in, including a required kill switch on advanced AI. But experts have questioned the viability of trying to turn off all AI systems.
The bottom line: In a real crisis, Washington can set partisan differences aside. One Democratic aide pointed to cooperation during COVID and the 2008 financial crisis.