The main super PAC supporting Republican Senate candidates plans to inject $5 million into the South Carolina campaign as an "insurance policy" to help GOP nominee Darline Graham, a source familiar with the move tells Axios.
Why it matters: The GOP's concern that a Senate seat in blood-red South Carolina could be in play shows just how bad the political environment is for Republicans, who face a rash of troubles in states long considered conservative strongholds.
- "It's an insurance policy. We're going to be there for Darline," said a Republican briefed on the plans for the Senate Leadership Fund.
The shift to spending in conservative South Carolina comes after Senate Republicans announced they no longer were financing ads in swing-state North Carolina, where the GOP's Michael Whatley is lagging behind former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in polls.
- Democrats, meanwhile, are reallocating resources in a way that reflects their optimism four weeks before Election Day.
- Democrats' main Senate super PAC canceled roughly $1.1 million in ad reservations in North Carolina, based on their belief Cooper is well-positioned to flip the seat now held by retiring Republican Thom Tillis.
Zoom in: Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, was appointed to her seat in July at the urging of President Trump, a friend of her brother's. Graham faces a host of challenges:
- She's a relatively poor fundraiser compared to her Democratic opponent, Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who is outspending and outraising Graham, according to the South Carolina Post & Courier.
- Unlike her brother, Graham shields herself from the press and has shown a relative lack of mastery of foreign policy, which tripped her up during a GOP primary debate.
- Graham won that primary over Rep. Ralph Norman with 52% of the vote after getting help from Trump. It left some bad feelings with Norman, who endorsed her but briefly suggested he would mount a write-in campaign for the Nov. 3 general election.
Zoom out: Voter anger over high prices and Trump's sagging popularity have helped to create a political landscape in which the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC is having to play defense across the country.
- It's trying to shore up GOP incumbents and challengers from Alaska to Ohio to Texas, where it recently plowed in $131 million over 17 days to boost Ken Paxton's campaign against Democrat James Talarico.
- "We're not taking anything for granted. We won't be caught flat-footed in any of these races," the source said.
- The money for Graham will be spent mainly on TV ads to "remind voters that Andrews is a Democrat."
- Democrats haven't won a statewide race in South Carolina since 2006.
By the numbers: Closer-than-expected polling from two firms that typically survey for Republicans sparked concern last week in GOP circles.
- A survey from Trafalgar showed Graham pulling 43% and Andrews 42%, a statistical tie.
- InsiderAdvantage also produced a poll showing a 1-point race that's essentially tied, with Graham at 46% and Andrews at 45%.
- Earlier in September, GOP-leaning Rasmussen Reports showed Graham up by 5 points.
Catch up quick: Andrews' campaign has been under the radar compared to that of Jaime Harrison, the Democrat who challenged Graham's brother for the seat in 2020.
- Harrison raised $100 million for that race, but because he was the state's former Democratic Party chair, it was easier for Republicans to make the race a partisan contest.
- In contrast, Andrews is running as a "mom and a doctor." Her campaign was largely financed with $3.6 million in campaign contributions bundled by 314 Action Fund, a political committee founded to elect Democratic candidates with STEM backgrounds.
What they're saying: "South Carolinians don't know who Darline Graham is or what she believes — she avoids reporters, avoids voters, and lies about Annie rather than doing her job," an Andrews spokesperson told Axios.
- A Graham spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
- Trump gave a preview Monday of the bare-knuckle attacks to come when he took to Truth Social and used a slur for transgender people to attack Andrews while accusing her of a host of liberal positions.
- "South Carolina must show, in the upcoming Election, that it is not for her," Trump wrote.
The 314 Action Fund jabbed back at the president in a statement late Monday, calling Trump "perverted" and saying that he "has resorted to name-calling and juvenile insults because his candidate can't win on the issues."
Axios' Hans Nichols contributed to this story.