The Pentagon instructed U.S. Central Command several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, U.S. officials said.
Why it matters: The directive didn't include a specific date for launching strikes, and President Trump hasn't made any final decisions. But U.S. and Israeli sources say it could happen before the U.S. midterm election and possibly the Israeli elections a week earlier.
The big picture: If major combat operations resume, they're expected to include massive bombing of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets, sources say.
- Resuming the war in the next three to four weeks could influence the midterm elections, in part because oil prices might rise in response.
- "The Department's job is to develop and present military options to the President," a Pentagon official told Axios.
- A White House official said Trump has all options available at any time.
- "The U.S. is in a very strong position with control of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economy collapsing. Iran has been decimated, and things will go one of two ways: the easy way or the hard way," the official said. "President Trump holds all the cards and will do whatever is best for the United States."
- The Atlantic reported earlier Wednesday that Trump is weighing striking Iran before the midterm election.
Driving the news: On Friday, Trump's national security team met at Camp David for several hours to discuss the war and other issues.
- An Israeli official told Axios that part of the meeting focused on a possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after the meeting that it focused on "long-term" foreign policy planning.
- Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran haven't made any progress. Qatari mediators are still waiting for an Iranian response to a U.S. counterproposal that included demands for nuclear concessions.
- "The discussion about possible resumption of major combat operations in Iran has increased. The chances of it happening before the elections is not high but we don't rule it out. After the midterms the chances of it happening increase significantly," a second Israeli official said.
Behind the scenes: President Trump spoke Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It was their second call in days, after barely speaking for many weeks.
- A U.S. official said Trump and Netanyahu spoke about "remembrance and respect for the victims of the October 7 massacre."
- The call took place after Netanyahu held a meeting with his national security team about Iran, the first Israeli official said.
- Netanyahu spoke to Rubio on Monday.
- If major combat operations resume, they will most likely be with the U.S. and Israel working in tandem and with the Israeli military participating.
- The two Israeli officials said the Iranian regime is desperate and paranoid, which might lead it to strike first.
- They said the Iranians have suffered two surprise attacks and don't want to experience a third.
Between the lines: Resumption of the war could also affect the Israeli elections, since Iran would likely fire hundreds of ballistic missiles at the country in retaliation.
- A renewed escalation — or even a heightened state of tension or emergency — could benefit Netanyahu politically and prevent his opponents from attacking him in the final stretch of the campaign.